NFL free agency triggers big shifts in Super Bowl betting

The free agency opening saw many NFL players moving teams, and none bigger than Tom Brady signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While there are not many sporting events to bet on with most leagues on lockdown due to the coronavirus issue, New Jersey sportsbooks have a number of NFL futures bets available. Let’s take a look at how the free agency moves have affected the 2021 Super Bowl betting odds.

Teams on the rise

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Odds before free agency: +3500
Current Super Bowl odds at DraftKings: +1700

No surprise that the Bucs had the biggest change in odds with six-time Super Bowl winner Brady in the fold. In the NFC, Tampa Bay trail only the San Francisco 49ers (+900) and New Orleans Saints (+1300) in the Super Bowl betting.

Brady joins a Buccaneers offense that had two 1,000+ yard receivers last season in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The team had a pretty good defense in 2019, but the rushing offense was a big issue and needs to be addressed.

Buffalo Bills

Odds before free agency: +3300
Current Super Bowl odds at DraftKings: +2200

Buffalo had a big jump in the NFL outright betting not only because they signed a no.1 wide receiver in Stefon Diggs, but also because the New England Patriots may no longer have a stranglehold on the division with Brady now in Tampa Bay. Buffalo had the third-ranked defense last season and they bolstered that side of the ball adding Mario Addison, Vernon Butler, and Quinton Jefferson.

Quarterback Josh Allen has to be happy entering his third season now that he has Diggs, who had 1,130 receiving yards with six touchdowns last season with the Minnesota Vikings. The Bills are trending up and there is a lot of excitement for the upstate New York team after they made the playoffs last term.

Miami Dolphins

Odds before free agency: +15000
Current Super Bowl odds at William Hill: +8000

The Dolphins are still long shots to win the Super Bowl, but their odds have changed significantly with the off-season moves they have made. Key additions include running back Jordan Howard, cornerback Byron Jones, and offensive lineman Ereck Flowers.

Like the Bills, Miami will benefit from Brady no longer being in the AFC East, and there have been rumors that the team may make a pitch to free-agent quarterback Cam Newton. The Dolphins have three picks in the first round of the draft and could take a signal-caller such as Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert with pick no.5.

Teams on the decline

New England Patriots

Odds before free agency: +1600
Current Super Bowl odds at DraftKings: +2000

No shock the Patriots’ odds to win the Super Bowl went down, but they did not go down that much despite losing Brady. They still have a solid run game and defense, but the obvious question is who will be their quarterback? The receiving corps is also an issue, so the Pats’ days of dominating the AFC East may be over.

Cleveland Browns

Odds before free agency: +3100
Current Super Bowl odds at PointsBet: +3300

The Browns were a disappointment last season, failing to make the playoffs after starting the campaign as the team to watch in the AFC North. Even with some solid additions in the off-season, oddsmakers have them on the decline. Baker Mayfield has to get over last season’s sophomore slump, where he ranked 19th in the league in Quarterback Rating and had 21 interceptions to go with 22 touchdowns.

Cleveland have done some solid business in the off-season, making Austin Hooper the highest-paid tight end in the league, picking up tackle Jack Conklin, and bolstering their secondary by bringing in Kevin Johnson and Karl Joseph. The Browns have the talent but need to translate that to on-field success, which can only happen if Mayfield has a much better season under center.

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